Did the price of eggs really cost us the election?
Why Your Perspective Matters More Than a Politician’s Agenda
I just received an email from my congressperson, Chuck Edwards. He's not the person I voted for. In the email, he asked:
"Was your Thanksgiving meal preparation more expensive this year?
Yes
No
Unsure
It's the type of question that the Republican party ran on, and I'm bothered by it because it has more to do with positioning and the party line than it does with what is actually true. In my experience, most people don't have the records to know whether or not they spent more on Thanksgiving this year than they did last year. I sure don’t!
Heck, most of us, including me, struggle to know what we had for breakfast yesterday. Or even today.
It's not that we lack the intelligence.
We’re paying attention to other things. Things that matter more in the present moment, or things that grab our attention.
Take my part in the grocery shopping for our Thanksgiving meal. While my wife does the vast majority of our grocery shopping, I help sometimes. On Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving, I made three small grocery trips. I remember some of the things I bought: glass pie dishes because we made even more pies this year than last. I also bought some granny smith apples for one of those pies, and I went to the store for something else I don't remember.
(With a little reminding from my wife, I/we recalled I returned to the store for carrots, pie crusts, and caramel sauce.)
All that happened within the last couple days. Last year? I have no idea! I'm sure we had similar food: stuffing, ham, sweet potato casserole, and I'm sure lots of pies – just not as many as this year.
How much did we spend last year on our Thanksgiving meal? Again, no idea!
It’s a leading question, a question that suggests a particular answer and contains information the examiner is looking to have confirmed.
In the absence of corroborating data, I’m inclined to say I spent more this year than last. After all, grocery prices, in general, have been going up. And there’s always that negativity bias.
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average cost of a dozen eggs was $2.07 in October 2023. In October of 2024, that same dozen eggs cost on average $3.37. It would seem obvious that prices have been steadily rising.
Not so fast, my friend.
If we take a closer look at the data, we discover those dozen eggs were a high of $2.02 in April 2020, at the start of the coronavirus epidemic. A year later, April 2021, a dozen eggs only cost $1.62.
Prices rise and fall.
The Consumer Price Index, a measure of how the prices of goods and services change over time for the average urban consumer, was up 2.1% for all food items from a year ago October. Again, an indication of rising prices. Look closer, though, you’ll see more nuance. For groceries, it was only up 1.1% from the prior year, while for food away from home (e.g. restaurants) it was up 3.8%.
Even with groceries, there’s more to the story than the price of eggs. Boneless chicken breast was less expensive in October 2024 ($4.04/lb) than 2023 ($4.22/lb). So was a loaf of white bread: $1.94 in October 2024 versus $2.00 in October 2023.
And the price of eggs, or for groceries at large, is only one piece of the economic picture. It’s not unlike how I remembered I bought glass pie dishes on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving but forgot about the carrots and pie crusts. We’re only paying attention to part of the picture, and I can’t even tell why I remembered what I did and forgot what I did.
When we think about the economy, are we remembering GDP, unemployment claims, the stock market?
The economy isn’t a monolith. There are seemingly countless pieces that make up the whole, and how we look at it matters.
That's one of the reasons I'm putting together an economic dashboard. I want to understand the economy in a way that isn't biased by politicians or the media. I want to understand the economy so my understanding isn't based on someone else's agenda. I also want a record, so I can see how to navigate my own economics and not kowtow to a hidden agenda that tries to steer my feelings one way or another.
Like the email I received from Congressperson Chuck Edwards.
It’s not just the numbers that matter. It’s how the numbers are used. In other words, how the story is told.
In a September 2024 Gallup poll regarding the factors influencing voters’ decision the economy was the only item with a majority of respondents (52%) saying it was extremely important to them in choosing how they were voting.
The report found that “More than half of Americans (52%) say they and their family are worse off today than they were four years ago, while 39% say they are better off and 9% volunteer that they are about the same.”
More interesting is who said they were better off and who were worse off: 72% of Democrats said they were better off, while only 35% of independents and 7% of Republicans said they were.
Whose story were each of these parties listening to?
I’m particularly interested in the story the 7% of better-off Republicans were paying attention to with their chosen candidate not in office. What can I learn from them that will help me better off in the next four years?
How about you? Rather than asking if you’re better off now than four years ago, I want to know what story you’ll be telling in four years. Will you be better off? Or worse?
Remember, you have more influence over your personal economy than anyone. Did you know the word economy comes from the Greek oikonomia meaning "household management?” So, you are the steward of your economy.
Let’s make it prosperous!
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Do you gauge the economy based on egg prices? What do you use? Let me know in the comments!
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I'm grateful for your perspective, Stef.